Finding Value in Sports Betting
One of the truest ways to beat your sportsbook over the long run is to find value in a spread for that night. On each given night, the bookmaker is going to set the spread at a point where both sides are attractive to the bettor. Essentially they are moving the point spread to where they believe the odds of winning are 50/50. If you are a seasoned sports gambler and you feel as though you have a fair grasp on point spreads and the game itself then it should be easier for you to find these value spreads.
When I speak of finding value, what I mean is looking for those spreads that you believe are too high or too low for that game. A way of spotting instances of value in sports betting that I find to be helpful is making your own spread prior to actually seeing what professional sportsbooks have set it at. Now I caution you, this method will only work if you are an experienced gambler. You should really only attempt this if you have a good feel for what a line should be based on how teams are performing that year. In addition, don't use this method every night because it is not going to work on every game you think the spread is too high. Remember that no matter how much you think you know, the sportsbooks are already ahead of you 90% of the time. What we are trying to do is find those discrepancies in that 10% where we can find value on a bet and try and make some quick money.
Let me give you a quick example from the NBA. Say you are looking at a game in the 2010 season between the Nets and the Hawks in New Jersey. You look at the game, what they have done the past couple nights, which players are out, and how each team tends to perform in the given situation and you think the line should be set at 10. You look on your sportsbook and they have set the line at 13.5. So according to your calculations you have a nice three and a half point cushion to sit on, and that's where the value lies. Again, let me warn you that you should only be attempting this if you have a couple years of experience in sports gambling because if you don't, this method is going to give you a swift slap across the face. Also remember to use this sparingly. It's not going to work every time, and if you don't know the sport you are betting on then it may never work. The key is to analyze all aspects of the game beforehand and hop aboard those games where you see high levels of value.
When I speak of finding value, what I mean is looking for those spreads that you believe are too high or too low for that game. A way of spotting instances of value in sports betting that I find to be helpful is making your own spread prior to actually seeing what professional sportsbooks have set it at. Now I caution you, this method will only work if you are an experienced gambler. You should really only attempt this if you have a good feel for what a line should be based on how teams are performing that year. In addition, don't use this method every night because it is not going to work on every game you think the spread is too high. Remember that no matter how much you think you know, the sportsbooks are already ahead of you 90% of the time. What we are trying to do is find those discrepancies in that 10% where we can find value on a bet and try and make some quick money.
Let me give you a quick example from the NBA. Say you are looking at a game in the 2010 season between the Nets and the Hawks in New Jersey. You look at the game, what they have done the past couple nights, which players are out, and how each team tends to perform in the given situation and you think the line should be set at 10. You look on your sportsbook and they have set the line at 13.5. So according to your calculations you have a nice three and a half point cushion to sit on, and that's where the value lies. Again, let me warn you that you should only be attempting this if you have a couple years of experience in sports gambling because if you don't, this method is going to give you a swift slap across the face. Also remember to use this sparingly. It's not going to work every time, and if you don't know the sport you are betting on then it may never work. The key is to analyze all aspects of the game beforehand and hop aboard those games where you see high levels of value.
