NFL Teams After Monday Night

Perception and reality are often two entirely different things when it comes to the world of sports betting. What should happen and what actually transpires are often on the opposite ends of the spectrum.

One case in point is an NFL team that plays on Monday night. The prevailing logic is that the team's entire routine has been throw out of whack, which along with one fewer day to prepare for its upcoming opponent, would make the team a decent one to wager against the following week.


Looking at the actual results is a bit different, however, as using my Stack Attack Pro Football 2013-14 program, I was able to see these teams were 92-91-3 against the spread since 2007. What was a bit surprising is that home teams were just 50-62-3 (44.6%) against the number, while road teams were a solid 42-29 (59.2%) ATS in that span, since road teams lose an extra preparation day due to travel. Once again, common logic would dictate that the home teams would fare better because of the lack of travel, but reality shows us something entirely different.

We can break down the home/away situations a bit more and see that home favorites were 40-44-2 against the number, while home underdogs were a dismal 10-18-1 ATS. Road favorites were 15-14, while road underdogs were a solid 13-5 (72.2%) against the spread the past six years.

To see if the trends were holding up, I looked at the past two seasons and all teams were 32-29-2 against the spread, which is essentially break-even. Home teams were 21-22-2 against the number, while road teams were a profitable 11-7 (61.1%) versus the spread.

The breakdowns also continued, as home favorites were 16-15-1, while home underdogs were 5-7-1. Road favorites were just 3-4, while road underdogs were a strong 8-3 against the number.

These trends definitely bear watching in the upcoming season.

Post Monday Night and Totals

The most noticeable developments appeared in the area of totals, however, and this time the trends followed common sense. In all games involving teams that previously played on Monday night, the overs were 107-75-4, which is a healthy 58.8% and pretty impressive for such a basic concept.

The logic behind the games going over also makes sense, as it's the defense that is hurt the most when preparation time is cut short. Teams do not change their offense much from week-to-week regardless of who the opponent is. But teams do change up their defense depending on the opponent and will alter their defense for the sole intent of stopping this week's opponent. Teams may use five defensive backs when playing the Saints or add an extra lineman when playing a running team like the Minnesota Vikings. Defenses also spend a lot of time watching film and studying particular plays an offense likes to run.

When the team that played Monday night was at home, the overs were 69-43-3, which is a solid 61.6% and 38-32-1 when on the road, which isn't as impressive, but is still a money-making 54.3%.

When the team at home was favored, the overs hit at an even higher rate, going 53-30-3 (63.9%) and were 16-13 (55.2%) when the team was a home underdog.

The same trends occur when the team off of the Monday night game is on the road, as the overs are 17-11-1 (60.7%) when the team is favored and 21-20 when the team is the underdog.

The over trend has been even more pronounced the past two years, going 43-19-1 (69.4%) overall. When the team off the Monday night game was at home, the overs were 30-14-1 (68.2%) and 13-5 (72.2%) when the team was on the road, giving something else to be on the lookout for in the 2013 season.