There are some people who won't bet on a favorite in a horse race because they feel that if there is going to be any monkey business in the race, it will probably involve the favorite.
There is some logic in that line of thought.
While I don't think many races are fixed, I do believe that the easiest way to fix a race is to stiff the favorite.
Telling the jockey to hold a 30-1 longshot back isn't going to help a gambler much, but stiffing an even money favorite makes almost any other bet in the race profitable.
It would appear then, that if a horse is going off at short odds or is one of the probable contenders, it is more likely to be the subject of a fix.
How often that happens is anybody's guess.
If you listen to the railbirds, it might be every race, or at least the ones in which they bet the favorite and it failed to win.
If you are trying to make a profit from betting on horse races you have probably already figured out that it is pretty tough sledding.
You also may have guessed that you have to overcome two obstacles.
The first one is the amount of money the track takes out of each pool.
Called the "vig," or track takeout, it is the amount of money paid to the state and local government as well as the money the track gets to keep as its share.
The second amount is breakage, the rounding off of the amounts in which the better, once again, gets the short end of the stick.
So before you even get started you are trying to "crack the nut," to the tune of 20% or more.
If you do manage to make that amount in profit, you've still only broken even.
You need to make more than that to have a profit.
So it looks like longshots may well be the best bet after all, but which ones are good bets and which ones are the stinkers they appear to be? While it may appear that all longshots are about the same, ask yourself this one question, why would a good rider who can pick and choose his or her mounts be on a long shot? Now scan your racing program and note the longshots who have a quality jockey in the irons.
It doesn't mean that longshot is going to win just because there is a big name jock aboard, but something is up.
There can be several reasons for a winning rider on a plug.
1.
He or she is doing the trainer a favor and is riding the horse to please the owner and show the owner that the reason the horse is losing isn't because the last jockey was lousy but because the horse can't win.
2.
He or she is getting paid by the owner to ride the horse.
Some owners will pay big money out of pocket to get a quality jock on their horse.
Sometimes it helps, but usually not.
3.
The horse has a legitimate chance to win and has improved dramatically since last out because of an equipment change or some other reason.
Good jockey agents keep their ears to the ground and know when a horse is ready to win.
4.
The horse is not going to win today, but the jockey wants to be on it when it does in a race or two so he or she has agreed to ride it today to familiarize with the horse and to guarantee the mount.
Therefore, my advice is to pay attention and if you see a top jockey on a longshot look for any reason or sign, like a bullet work or equipment change, that tells you the horse might win.
If it doesn't win and you see the jockey on it the next time it runs, it is probably going to win in a race or two.
It may still go off as the longshot, too.
That is an excellent bet.