Using First Crop Sires to Pick Horse Racing Winners
Breeding is one factor in horse racing handicapping that can really help when you're trying to pick winners, especially winners that pay well.
When a sire is untested it makes all his progeny suspect and some handicappers will wait until a sire has produced several crops of foals before backing his runners.
Looking at the first crop when it makes it to the race track can be deceptive at times and you have to be careful.
Some sires pass along the tendency to develop late so a crop of two year olds who start racing may not appear very successful.
Given a year or more those same horses may develop into successful runners.
Therefore, just because a first crop of foals doesn't produce a lot of juvenile winners, don't give up on the sire.
Another factor that influences how successful a first crop may be is the quality of the mares who are sent to the breeding shed in that sire's first year of standing at stud.
With well known and successful horses who are retired to stud, many fine mares are often chosen to bear that horse's foal.
ON the opposite end of the spectrum, a relatively unknown horse who stands at stud may pass along some excellent traits but because it is unknown or not highly regarded the broodmares sent to that horse may not be of very high quality and may result in a mediocre first crop.
Therefore, when considering a horse's foals, especially a horse who has just started his breeding career, you must also closely consider the broodmare of each foal.
Just looking at the average earnings index may not tell the whole story.
I like to see at least ten high quality mares out of a top broodmare sire such as Danehill or any of the successful Mr.
Prospector sires who've produced some fine broodmares over the years and then look to see how many of the ten manage to break their maiden and race well into their conditions.
Always consider a sire and his first crop only in light of the quality of the broodmare.
Using that one rule of thumb will help you to accurately gauge his future prospects and the ability of his foals.
Also, make a note of any successful horses from that sire and in particular, the broodmare sire.
In the future, look for the same combination in first time starters and young horses.
They often result in winners.
When a sire is untested it makes all his progeny suspect and some handicappers will wait until a sire has produced several crops of foals before backing his runners.
Looking at the first crop when it makes it to the race track can be deceptive at times and you have to be careful.
Some sires pass along the tendency to develop late so a crop of two year olds who start racing may not appear very successful.
Given a year or more those same horses may develop into successful runners.
Therefore, just because a first crop of foals doesn't produce a lot of juvenile winners, don't give up on the sire.
Another factor that influences how successful a first crop may be is the quality of the mares who are sent to the breeding shed in that sire's first year of standing at stud.
With well known and successful horses who are retired to stud, many fine mares are often chosen to bear that horse's foal.
ON the opposite end of the spectrum, a relatively unknown horse who stands at stud may pass along some excellent traits but because it is unknown or not highly regarded the broodmares sent to that horse may not be of very high quality and may result in a mediocre first crop.
Therefore, when considering a horse's foals, especially a horse who has just started his breeding career, you must also closely consider the broodmare of each foal.
Just looking at the average earnings index may not tell the whole story.
I like to see at least ten high quality mares out of a top broodmare sire such as Danehill or any of the successful Mr.
Prospector sires who've produced some fine broodmares over the years and then look to see how many of the ten manage to break their maiden and race well into their conditions.
Always consider a sire and his first crop only in light of the quality of the broodmare.
Using that one rule of thumb will help you to accurately gauge his future prospects and the ability of his foals.
Also, make a note of any successful horses from that sire and in particular, the broodmare sire.
In the future, look for the same combination in first time starters and young horses.
They often result in winners.
