(Updated 8/12/15)

With 17 candidates now officially in the race for the Republican nomination, we take a look at where the candidates currently stand. These rankings are not based exclusively - or even heavily - on polling data, but instead a combination of factors including performance, favorability ratings, and general "acceptance" of candidacies by both the establishment and the grassroots. Candidates have rarely reached 20% in nationwide polling, so the top and bottom candidates are often within single digits of each other.

The updated rankings were completed a week after the first primary debate. Who will move up, down, or out of this these rankings moving forward?

10. Donald Trump (Pre-debate Rank: Tied 4th) - Trump remains an incoherent mess. His unfavorables are on the rise. In the first debate, he praised socialized medicine and bragged about his role in buying off politicians for business favors. He threatened to run as a 3rd party candidate for leverage, and then doubled-down on his theory that the Mexican government was intentionally sending criminals across the border. Later in the week he became the only candidate - out of 17 - to come out against totally defunding Planned Parenthood, earning praises from the abortion group's leader. Is Trump a conservative candidate? You decide. Trump will never be the Republican nominee, so putting him 10th is even a stretch.

9. Rand Paul (Pre-debate Rank: Tied 4th) - His debate performance was a disaster. He rolled his eyes, picked fights, spoke out of turn, and often seemed distant.

I once praised him for being able to take his fathers philosophy mainstream, but his constant detours since entering the race are starting to hurt him. A childish rant aimed at Marco Rubio on Cuba policy kicked things off, while calling his fellow Republicans war-mongers constantly isn't helping. The "big issues" he likes to focus on are aimed at a a voting demographic (young people) that will be voting in the other primary. His favorability numbers have been taking and he is dangerously close to falling out of the top 10 altogether.

8. Chris Christie (Pre-Debate Rank: 8th) - He still has some Northeastern appeal, but he would need Jeb Bush to have a serious meltdown. His debate performance was fine, and he got the better of Rand Paul in the exchange. But, like Paul and Trump, he has far to many negatives to be seen as a major played going forward.

7. John Kasich (Pre-Debate Rank: Not Ranked) - Kasich feels like he was plucked out of central casting as a 1990s-era Presidential candidate. He's definitely the kind of moderate, boring candidate that the GOP is known for nominating. He isn't a threat to win the nomination, but he does have some serious appeal in geographically-friendly New Hampshire and will probably knock Ohio out of contention for others. Honestly, he seems more confident than his main foe, Jeb Bush.

6. Ted Cruz (Pre-Debate Rank: 6) - He has his following, but ultimately Republican voters still value a candidate who is viewed as electable over one they agree with. Right now, Cruz is losing the electability argument. He's also continued to play footsie with Trump as Trump turns even more Trumpy as the race goes on.

5. Ben Carson (Pre-debate Rank: 5) - Carson just isn't going away. Despite a handful of gaffes to his credit and being the least ideologically prepared candidate (he doesn't seem to have a grasp on a lot of political issues) he still remains popular and he still remains competitive in both the primary and general election polls. He is likable and has a story to tell. Maybe that's enough?

4. Scott Walker (Pre-debate Rank: 3) - Governor? Check. Of a blue state? Check. Defeated Big Labor in a highly publicized manner and then became the first governor to survive the recall election that followed? Check-check. Walker has a certain mid-western, blue-collar appeal and will be the closest thing Iowans will have to voting for a hometown candidate in the kick-off caucus. But his kickoff announcement was boring. His roll-out was uneventful. Most of his one-liners and soundbites are overdone cliches from the Handbook of Things Conservatives Say To Get Applause. His debate performance was forgetful. Right now Scott Walker is a really-great-on-paper-candidate but a really lackluster actual one. There is still time, and peaking later is always better than peaking early, but so far there is little to get excited about.

3. Carly Fiorina - I was one of the more generous ones in the last ranking list placing Fiorina at number 7 ahead of the debates. I was right. Fiorina is easily the best candidate right now. She is a very polished candidate, never stumbles or pauses or confuses words, and she has an answer for everything. She is confident and she is consistently good. I knew she would break out after being impressed month after month, and she did. That said, she doesn't rank as likely to get the nominee, based on other factors. This can change, of course. The question for Fiorina is whether the current spark is artificial and based on buzz - like so many candidates in the past - or if she will continue to grow. The potential exists either way. She is who she is, and who she is on the campaign trail is fantastic.

 

The Big Two

Right now, there's about a 95% chance that the eventual Republican nominee will be one of these two Floridians. Walker had been in what was the "Top 3" but dipped for the reasons explained.

2. Jeb Bush (Pre-debate Rank: 2) - Jeb's debate performance was unimpressive. He is shaky when talking foreign policy, and doesn't quite connect with voters with the likability and charm that his brother possessed. Like Walker, nobody was talking about Jeb the morning after, other than to say nobody was talking about Jeb. Other than hardcore Bush loyalists, few seem to be really excited about Jeb. His powerful brand and ability to raise cash and call in favors make him an instant top-tier candidate. He fares well against Hillary, now, and the electability argument is a big one. What the polling data does show, however, is that Jeb better find a way to start getting Republicans to really like him. He regularly ranks the least popular candidates in the top tier and, outside of Chris Christie and Donald Trump, the entire field. His December announcement was made to scare off a lot of contenders, but the exact opposite has happened. Everybody is running. But his name, connections, and cash will likely keep him high.

1. Marco Rubio (Pre-debate Rank: 1) - Rubio retains the top spot for a number of reasons. He ranks with Carson and Walker as the three most popular Republicans among both Republican voters, and with Carson as the most popular among all voters. He can speak with clarity and ease on just about any subject and is the most naturally talented politician in the field. Like Fiorina, he is solid day in and out. He never seems to have the bad moments, the slip-ups, or the uneasiness that plague the rest of the field. Has any negative attack thrown at him stuck? Hillary Clinton is most worried about Rubio, and she used her Extreme Makeover Announcement Speech to fight back against Rubio's line that she represents "yesterday." Rubio saw a nice bump in polls after the first debate, and he was widely considered the winner. That performance is Rubio being Rubio. His consistency is, again, matched only by Fiorina. He's also the candidate that seems to be the second choice of many voters, and the third choice of many, many more. As candidate drop, he benefits the most. Carson and Fiorina remain long-shots based on a lack on infrastructure and big-politics campaign experience. And cash. If it came down to Jeb versus Rubio, Rubio is the better speaker, has bigger ideas, and is far more engaging and personable. If Walker continues to under-perform, Rubio will rise. And if the next debate repeats itself, he will rise further.

 

Just out: How strong is the field? Rick Perry (TX) has gained no traction, and long-term prospects look thin. Governor Bobby Jindal (LA) is making a play for VP, and remains well-liked. Huckabee fell off the list altogether, despite a well-received performance (been there and done that.)  After finishing the runner-up in 2012, Rick Santorum wasn't even the runner-up in the runner-up debate.