Handicapping the Caulfield Cup Jockeys
In the week leading up to the Caulfield Cup the race is analysed from every possible angle, but here is a slightly different way of assessing the big event.
I want to take a look at the jockeys engaged to ride the fancied runners to see how well they normally ride the Caulfield track.
Just four horses are under double figure odds in the Caulfield Cup and I've taken a look at each of their riders to see how they stack up.
Of course to analyse the race professionally there is a lot more to consider than just the jockeys, but it's at least worth looking at before you place your bets on the Cup.
Hugh Bowman rides Metal Bender and since 2006 the Sydney-sider has had just 35 rides at Caulfield.
Only 3 of those have won and his mounts have lost 17% on turnover using best tote odds and betting proportionately, which is a fairer assessment than level stakes.
Herculian Prince will be ridden by the former South African Glyn Schofield and his only experience at the track was five rides at this meeting last year when he did manage to win on McClintock.
Neither Bowman nor Schofield have had enough rides at the track to say with any certainty whether they are good or bad betting propositions tomorrow.
But the jockeys of the next two Cup fancies have markedly differing Caulfield records.
Michael Rodd has plenty of experience at the track and a very good record to boot.
Betting on each of his 192 Caulfield rides shows a profit on turnover of 6%, so the backers of Shocking can be very confident it will be given every chance in the run.
On the other hand Alcopop's jockey Mark Zahra has a poor Caulfield record with a miserable 5% strike-rate and 39% loss on turnover.
But those numbers probably aren't a fair reflection of his ability, because for a lot of the period we're looking at Zahra either didn't get many opportunities in the city (small sample sizes can't be relied upon), or those he did get on were rank outsiders with very little hope.
His overall numbers across all tracks is actually quite strong, but if you were to look purely at their Caulfield and Group racing records you'd obviously have to give Rodd the edge over Zahra.
However, we still don't have the ability to know what will happen during the event.
Expect changes for every horse's ability and condition.
This is a guide to everyone that which horse has the best and has the edge of winning based on their Group racing records.
Good luck tomorrow!
I want to take a look at the jockeys engaged to ride the fancied runners to see how well they normally ride the Caulfield track.
Just four horses are under double figure odds in the Caulfield Cup and I've taken a look at each of their riders to see how they stack up.
Of course to analyse the race professionally there is a lot more to consider than just the jockeys, but it's at least worth looking at before you place your bets on the Cup.
Hugh Bowman rides Metal Bender and since 2006 the Sydney-sider has had just 35 rides at Caulfield.
Only 3 of those have won and his mounts have lost 17% on turnover using best tote odds and betting proportionately, which is a fairer assessment than level stakes.
Herculian Prince will be ridden by the former South African Glyn Schofield and his only experience at the track was five rides at this meeting last year when he did manage to win on McClintock.
Neither Bowman nor Schofield have had enough rides at the track to say with any certainty whether they are good or bad betting propositions tomorrow.
But the jockeys of the next two Cup fancies have markedly differing Caulfield records.
Michael Rodd has plenty of experience at the track and a very good record to boot.
Betting on each of his 192 Caulfield rides shows a profit on turnover of 6%, so the backers of Shocking can be very confident it will be given every chance in the run.
On the other hand Alcopop's jockey Mark Zahra has a poor Caulfield record with a miserable 5% strike-rate and 39% loss on turnover.
But those numbers probably aren't a fair reflection of his ability, because for a lot of the period we're looking at Zahra either didn't get many opportunities in the city (small sample sizes can't be relied upon), or those he did get on were rank outsiders with very little hope.
His overall numbers across all tracks is actually quite strong, but if you were to look purely at their Caulfield and Group racing records you'd obviously have to give Rodd the edge over Zahra.
However, we still don't have the ability to know what will happen during the event.
Expect changes for every horse's ability and condition.
This is a guide to everyone that which horse has the best and has the edge of winning based on their Group racing records.
Good luck tomorrow!
