SARS Proves Deadlier than First Thought
SARS Proves Deadlier than First Thought
New Research Shows Age Greatly Affects Risk of SARS Death
May 7, 2003 -- A person's risk of dying from SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) may be much higher than initially thought, according to the latest analysis of SARS death rates. But researchers say the risk of SARS death also varies greatly from person to person and depends on many factors, such as age, the magnitude of exposure to the SARS virus, other illnesses, and access to prompt medical care.
In response to these findings, the World Health Organization (WHO) today revised its initial estimates of the risk of death due to SARS. The WHO now estimates that the percentage of people with SARS that will die ranges from 0% to 50%, depending on the age group affected, with an overall death rate of 14% to 15%.
Until now, the WHO and CDC estimated the death rate from SARS at about 3% to 7%.
WHO officials say the risk of death is much higher among older persons. The death rate is estimated to be less than 1% among people under 24, 6% among people 25-44, 15% in people 45-64, and greater than 50% in people over 65.
Experts say the death rate of infectious diseases like SARS is an important indicator of the severity of the disease and its threat to public health. But calculating the death rate of a newly emerging infectious disease is extremely difficult and complicated by several factors.
For example, the death rate attributed to a disease naturally rises as the case definition for the diseases becomes more specific and illnesses due to other causes are ruled out. Simply calculating the number of deaths per number of people suspected as having the disease, as was done early on in the SARS outbreak, underestimates the death rate because it doesn't take into account the disease recovery time and includes people who may not actually have SARS.
In addition, calculating SARS death rates by studying isolated outbreaks may also be misleading. In Vietnam, which was the first country to contain its SARS outbreak, the death rate was only 8%, but that was likely influenced by the fact that a large number of SARS cases in Vietnam were among young, previously healthy healthcare workers.
SARS Proves Deadlier than First Thought
New Research Shows Age Greatly Affects Risk of SARS Death
May 7, 2003 -- A person's risk of dying from SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) may be much higher than initially thought, according to the latest analysis of SARS death rates. But researchers say the risk of SARS death also varies greatly from person to person and depends on many factors, such as age, the magnitude of exposure to the SARS virus, other illnesses, and access to prompt medical care.
In response to these findings, the World Health Organization (WHO) today revised its initial estimates of the risk of death due to SARS. The WHO now estimates that the percentage of people with SARS that will die ranges from 0% to 50%, depending on the age group affected, with an overall death rate of 14% to 15%.
Until now, the WHO and CDC estimated the death rate from SARS at about 3% to 7%.
WHO officials say the risk of death is much higher among older persons. The death rate is estimated to be less than 1% among people under 24, 6% among people 25-44, 15% in people 45-64, and greater than 50% in people over 65.
Experts say the death rate of infectious diseases like SARS is an important indicator of the severity of the disease and its threat to public health. But calculating the death rate of a newly emerging infectious disease is extremely difficult and complicated by several factors.
For example, the death rate attributed to a disease naturally rises as the case definition for the diseases becomes more specific and illnesses due to other causes are ruled out. Simply calculating the number of deaths per number of people suspected as having the disease, as was done early on in the SARS outbreak, underestimates the death rate because it doesn't take into account the disease recovery time and includes people who may not actually have SARS.
In addition, calculating SARS death rates by studying isolated outbreaks may also be misleading. In Vietnam, which was the first country to contain its SARS outbreak, the death rate was only 8%, but that was likely influenced by the fact that a large number of SARS cases in Vietnam were among young, previously healthy healthcare workers.